INDIANAPOLIS (WRTV) — Two economists on Monday said Indiana is still not guaranteed to score the Chicago Bears despite the Illinois legislature fumbling a deal.
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The Illinois Senate early Monday morning approved legislation that would have allowed both Chicago and the northern suburb of Arlington Heights to create local stadium authorities. This would have allowed the Bears to potentially avoid local property taxes on a new stadium.
The Bears have repeatedly said they plan to move out of Soldier Field, where they have played since 1971, and move to either Arlington Heights or to Hammond, just over the state line in Indiana. The Illinois House adjourned without taking up the bill. Since the Illinois General Assembly’s 2026 session has now concluded, this means any further legislation related to the Bears would have to come in a special session.
For now, this means Indiana has a state-backed incentive package on the table and Illinois does not.
Prof. Mark Rosentraub, who directs the University of Michigan’s Center for Sports Venues and Real Estate Development, said it’s still a toss-up whether the Bears go to Arlington Heights or to Hammond, though he added “It’s probably 55/45, Hammond.” Prior to his academic career, Rosentraub worked under then-Indianapolis mayors Bill Hudnut and Steven Goldsmith to first renegotiate the Indianapolis Colts’ lease on their first home, the Hoosier Dome, and then to negotiate the project that ultimately led to the construction of Lucas Oil Stadium.
“The new facility could be built at a lower price to ownership if they’re located in Hammond,” he said. “That’s why I think right now is a very strategic time. Hammond has to be absolutely sure that they have a plan in place that is as efficient and pointed as it is for the one that the Bears have. They have a business plan. They know what they want to achieve. What does Hammond want to achieve?”
Rosentraub said the bottom line for the Bears is where they can minimize their costs and, therefore, maximize their profits. He said a larger share of public funding for a new stadium means the team itself would have to spend less and, therefore, could generate a profit more quickly.
Rosentraub said the real test is whether Hammond authorities have developed a comprehensive plan for how to use the Bears’ presence to spur their own economic development. He said the reason the Colts worked out so well for Indianapolis is because the city had a plan in place for how to develop the area around the stadium. He said that plan was developed in 1974, ten years before the Colts’ now-famous midnight move from Baltimore.
Ball State University economist Prof. Michael Hicks said he’s less sure of Hammond’s success. He said many experts put the risk the Bears move out of Chicago “in the low single digits.” Although Indiana might have offered a more generous incentive package, Hicks said that doesn’t necessarily mean the Bears are guaranteed to move.
Hicks said there are other, intangible factors that weigh against a move. Chief among them is the team’s long history. The Bears are one of two NFL teams that have been in the league since its founding in 1920 and have played in the city of Chicago since 1922, first at Wrigley Field and then at Soldier Field.
“There’s a number of reasons why it would anger some of their staunchest fans,” he said. “It would make some happy. I’m sure there’s folks in Lake County that would love to see this, but the Bears are a Chicago entity. I think this is just part of negotiation that is going to play out over the coming weeks or months that is not likely to make the Bears leave the state of Illinois.”
In addition, Hicks said there’s no guarantee the Hammond location would be profitable.
“They’re going to want to be in a place that people will want to visit and stay, and it’s a lot easier to do that in downtown Chicago or near downtown Chicago than it would be in Indiana despite the many attractions in Lake County,” he said.
Rosentraub said he doesn’t think regional identity disincentivizes a move across the state line. He said the Chicago economic and cultural region extends well beyond the city. In addition, some recent, high-profile NFL team moves, notably the then-St. Louis Rams’ return to their native Los Angeles, involved moving to larger TV markets. Chicago is already the nation’s third-largest TV market, and its footprint includes northwest Indiana.
“Chicago has expanded. It includes Hammond, Indiana; it includes Arlington Heights. That’s Chicagoland,” he said. “Think about it this way. The New York Giants and the New York Jets play in New Jersey. They have never used the moniker ‘New Jersey.’ It’s always the New York Jets and the New York Giants.”
Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott, a Democrat, did not return News 8’s request for comment, nor did state lawmakers who were involved with the crafting of Indiana’s offer this spring. Chicago Bears management said they are still reviewing their options.
“We will finalize our evaluation of both Arlington Heights and Hammond, and remain on the late spring/early summer timeline that we have previously communicated. We will provide an update when we have a decision to share.”
