INDIANAPOLIS -- Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has an 86.9 percent chance of winning in the state of Indiana in November, according to FiveThirtyEight’s 2016 election forecast.
The site uses a model that weights each poll by its sample size, how recently it was conducted and the historical accuracy and methodology of the polling firm. They then adjust each poll based on those factors.
With all of that combined, Trump has continuously held the top of their polls here in the Hoosier State.
More than a dozen states show an even better chance of Trump winning their November election, including 12 that are in the 90 percent-plus-range: Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia.
But overall, the site has Hillary Clinton holding an 83 percent chance if winning.
FiveThirtyEight also projects that Evan Bayh has a 62 percent chance of winning Indiana’s Senate seat.
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