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Annual inflation rate increases as economists warn of impact of Trump's tariffs

An analysis says President Trump's tariffs would raise prices by almost 2.1% in the short run, costing the typical middle-class household more than $2,800 per year.
White House reacts to inflation rate increasing
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The U.S. inflation rate increased in June, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

According to new data released on Tuesday, the consumer price index rose 2.7% in the 12-month period ending in June. The inflation rate is 0.3 percentage points higher than May's rate of 2.4%. The 12-month consumer price index was 2.3% in April, which marked the lowest year-over-year inflation rate since 2021.

How much of a role President Donald Trump's tariff policies have played in inflation remains unclear.

On Monday, the Budget Lab at Yale University said President Trump's tariffs would raise prices by almost 2.1% in the short run, costing the typical middle-class household more than $2,800 per year. Those figures increased significantly in recent weeks after President Trump announced numerous tariffs against some of the United States' top trading partners, including Canada, Mexico, Japan, Brazil and Vietnam.

The Consumer Price Index weighs the costs of goods based on their importance; items like food, shelter, and energy tend to be weighted more heavily. Tuesday's report showed the gasoline and shelter costs were a bit higher in June.

Apparel and footwear, which had actually seen prices decline over the previous year, saw price increases in June. Many experts said apparel and footwear could especially be vulnerable to import taxes, given that most of the clothes and shoes worn by Americans are imported.

The White House attempted to downplay the new data.

“Every month since President Trump took office, core inflation — the best measure of inflation — has beat or matched expectations," said White Huse Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. "The data proves that President Trump is stabilizing inflation and the Panicans continue to be wrong about tariffs raising prices.”

Over the last decade, prices have generally increased at a rate of 3.5% per year. Over the last 20 years, consumer inflation has typically risen by 3.3% annually. The Federal Reserve, however, has aimed to keep annual inflation at approximately 2%.