Just looking at the grass, it's no surprise that pretty much all of Central Indiana is in need of a soaking rain. Indy recently closed out the eighth driest June on record with just 1.18" of rainfall for the month. That's nearly four inches below average in what is typically our wettest month of the year. The graphic below shows many other spots running two to four inches below average in rainfall last month.
The effects of the lack of rain are already being noticed with water levels dropping and grass and plants struggling. The U.S. Drought Monitor comes out each Thursday. The latest edition shows most of Central Indiana is dealing with "abnormally dry" conditions. Moderate drought already extends across western areas from Rockville to Lafayette.
There's still some time for us to get back on track with rainfall this summer. July typically brings a decent amount of rainfall. Indy's average for the month is 4.42" of rain. Our rain chances usually drop off in August and stay low right through the fall.
The monthly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center doesn't exactly suggest we'll make up for our rainfall deficit this month. Indiana is placed into the "equal chances" category with below average rainfall not far away. What this means for us is there is no strong signal toward above, below or near average rainfall this month. In other words, we just kind of have to wait things out. We do get into a more active weather pattern for the week of July 4th, but a widespread, soaking rain doesn't look to be in the cards.
Dry weather patterns are often coupled with hot stretches of weather. That's because dry air is able to heat and cool more quickly. Also, a dry pattern means we don't have as many clouds (and thus showers) to cool us down. That's why our temperature outlook for July continues to feature warmer than average temperatures. Our average high is in the middle 80s.
Overall, it looks like July will continue to bring the heat with occasional chances for some much needed rainfall. This recipe means we aren't likely to see much improvement in our dry soil conditions, and could even see moderate drought expand in coverage.
