INDIANAPOLIS — This week, the entire WRTV Storm Team has been working hard to track our next round of winter weather. Here are some of the insights from our team as we work together to create a winter forecast.
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"There were long-range models that were indicating that a big storm was going to happen, and that's what long-range models are good for: that you can tell their trends of if a storm's going to develop, if there's a big push of cold air," explained Chief Meteorologist Todd Klaassen.
"We want to be transparent and share," said Meteorologist Kyle Mounce. "We want to give you as much lead time as possible to start preparing."
Early forecasts, about a week before a snow event, can give you that heads up. Each day, meteorologists get a little more clarity into what is going to happen.
"I think a lot of people are consuming as much as they can about this, because it does have a big direct impact on people's lives," said Good Morning Indiana Meteorologist Chris Swaim.
Swaim demonstrated that the storm, currently located on the West Coast, is still nearly 1,500 miles away from Central Indiana.
When you hear meteorologists mention "uncertainty" in the forecast, the path the storm will take is often one of those variables.
"Once the storm makes landfall, models can sample it a lot better," Klaassen explained. "The track of the storm started moving north, and that's why we went from hardly any snow midweek to basically forecasting maybe up to 10, 12 inches across parts of Central Indiana."
Between shifts, meteorologists may leave notes or send emails to the rest of the team.
"One meteorologist might see something that the other meteorologist doesn't see, and one may think something a little bit different," Klaassen said. "That's what makes a team, right? You take everybody's forecasting experience and you come up with one good forecast to give the public."
Another variable with this system is the amount of dry air in place.
"How much that dry air is going to come in and kind of eat away at that initial snow and bring down some of those snow numbers?" Mounce mentioned as an added uncertainty of the system.
Throughout the day, weather models have new data, which meteorologists examine multiple times. At the end of the day, however, the models don't give the final say.
"You can't just take a model as a snapshot," Klaassen said. "That's where the human element, the meteorologist element, comes in. You have to analyze the data."
Some variables Klaassen considers are:
- dry air
- snow ratio
- timing
- exact track
- jet streams
Klaassen says he will release a snow totals map usually between 48 to 60 hours before a snow event, once he feels confident with his forecast from all of these variables.
This being said, exact forecast pieces will continue to change as we head into the weekend ahead of this snow. Watch WRTV for more updates.
