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Indianapolis Colts record could hold Andrew Luck's MVP chances back

Posted at 12:26 PM, Oct 27, 2016

INDIANAPOLIS -- The NFL's Most Valuable Player award should, in theory, be given to the player who means the most to their team. But it's rarely awarded that way. 

Lately, it's been given to a top quarterback on one of the league's best teams.

Could Colts quarterback Andrew Luck buck that trend this season and win the MVP award?

Well for starters, he has the numbers of the other top quarterbacks.

Luck is No. 3 in yards passing this season, No. 5 in touchdowns, No. 3 in completions and No. 10 in quarterback ranking.

Also in Luck's favor is the lack of star quarterbacks this season. All three of those statistics have different leaders so far. There is no 2008 Tom Brady or 2013 Peyton Manning this season to dominate the voting.

Here are the top 10 quarterbacks this season, by passer rating.

The rest of Luck's team isn't exactly helping his candidacy. The Colts are 3-4 this season. It's strange to think about how a team's overall performance helps shape the MVP voting, but the thought process has always been "If he's so valuable to his team, why isn't the team better?"

Of the last 10 MVPs, the team with the worst record was the 2012 Minnesota Vikings, where running back Adrian Peterson won the award, That team finished 10-6, barely making the playoffs. To match that record, the Colts would need to go 7-2 through the rest of the season, which seems like a tough request, given the first five games.

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This wouldn’t be the first time the discussion has been had about a player for a sub-par team winning the MVP, even on the Colts.

In 2011, Peyton Manning missed the entire season due to his neck surgery. There was talk of him garnering MVP votes, given how much the team’s performance had dropped off without him.

"Those people that were arguing that he should be the MVP probably have a good argument," San Diego Chargers coach Norv Turner said at the time.

Manning’s teammate in 2011, defensive end Dwight Freeney, didn’t like the idea of Manning getting MVP votes.

"It is disrespectful and it's ridiculous across the board, to all of the guys who are actually playing the game," Freeney said. "To the guys who are playing hard, it's unfortunate that they're doing something like that. They will and they do look ridiculous doing that."

In the end, the talks proved frivolous, as Aaron Rodgers won the MVP award, and Drew Brees came in second. Manning didn’t get any votes.

But if you’re a true believer in the Colts and Luck this season, you could stand to make some money.

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Online gambling website Bovada has a prop bet available on who’s going to win the MVP. As of Oct. 27, the website has Luck’s odds at +1200, meaning a $100 bet would net you $1,200. He has the fourth-highest odds of anybody available, tied with Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. Tom Brady is the favorite, with a $100 bet netting you $150.

So while the odds may look pretty slim right now for Luck to be the MVP this season, don’t completely count him out yet. It just looks like it will depend on those around him a lot more.